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dc.contributor.authorVanella, Patrizio
dc.contributor.authorHeß, Moritz
dc.contributor.authorWilke, Christina B.
dc.creatorVanella, P.
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-17T08:54:27Z
dc.date.available2020-02-17T08:54:27Z
dc.date.issued2020-01-01
dc.identifier.issn00335177
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11135-020-00968-w
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85078453272&origin=inward
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10033/622137
dc.description.abstractDemographic aging puts social insurance systems under immense pressure as frailty risks increase with age. The statutory long-term care insurance in Germany (GPV), whose society has been aging for decades due to low fertility and decreasing mortality, faces massive future pressure. The present study presents a stochastic outlook on long-term care insurance in Germany until 2045 by forecasting the future number of frail persons who could claim insurance services by severity level with theory-based Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations result in credible intervals for age-, sex- and severity-specific care rates as well as the numbers of persons for all combinations of age, sex and severity by definition of the GPV on an annual basis. The model accounts for demographic trends through time series analysis and considers all realistic epidemiological developments by simulation. The study shows that increases in the general prevalence of disabilities, especially for severe disabilities, caused by the demographic development in Germany are unavoidable, whereas the influence of changes in agespecific care risks does not affect the outcome significantly. The results may serve as a basis for estimating the future demand for care nurses and the financial expenses of the GPV.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofQuality and Quantity
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/*
dc.subjectDisability risksen_US
dc.subjectLong-term careen_US
dc.subjectMonte Carlo simulationen_US
dc.subjectSocial insuranceen_US
dc.subjectSocial policyen_US
dc.subjectStochastic forecastingen_US
dc.titleA probabilistic projection of beneficiaries of long-term care insurance in Germany by severity of disabilityen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentHZI,Helmholtz-Zentrum für Infektionsforschung GmbH, Inhoffenstr. 7,38124 Braunschweig, Germany.en_US
dc.identifier.journalQuality and Quantityen_US
dc.identifier.eid2-s2.0-85078453272
dc.identifier.scopusidSCOPUS_ID:85078453272
refterms.dateFOA2020-02-17T08:54:28Z


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Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International
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