An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases

Abstract

Population projections serve various actors at subnational, national, and international levels as a quantitative basis for political and economic decision-making. Usually, the users are no experts in statistics or forecasting and therefore lack the methodological and demographic background to completely understand methods and limitations behind the projections they use to inform further analysis. Our contribution primarily targets that readership. Therefore, we give a brief overview of di erent approaches to population projection and discuss their respective advantages and disadvantages, alongside practical problems in population data and forecasting. Fundamental di erences between deterministic and stochastic approaches are discussed, with special emphasis on the advantages of stochastic approaches. Next to selected projection data available to the public, we show central areas of application of population projections, with an emphasis on Germany